By Charlie Schlenker
There are big warning signs in agriculture right now. And many experts are warning an aid package announced by the Trump administration is not likely to go very far or come soon enough.
Between loss of markets and low prices caused by tariffs and high costs, a lot of farmers are under water this year, despite a bumper crop, if they can even find someone to sell to.
“I’m scared that we’re rivaling a scenario like we saw in the 80s for agriculture,” said Illinois Agriculture Director Jerry Costello.
Costello said the stress farmers are seeing is enormous. Illinois farmers are averaging a 30 cent per bushel loss on corn, and a $1 a bushel on soybeans this year. That adds up.
“Break even across the state on a bushel of corn is about $4.60 give or take. As we’re talking [Dec. 12] I think corn is somewhere around $4.30-$4.27 give or take. Break even on a bushel of soybeans, if you average in the entire state, is about $11.60 $11.65, I think beans are somewhere around $10.60, right now. We’ve had a bumper crop this last year. Farmers are doing their part,” said Costello.
Ag economists are estimating U.S. farmer losses on this year’s crop at $35 billion to $43 billion. Costello blamed mostly the president’s tariff policies.
“It’s beyond logic where we are in the trade wars that we’re having with so many different countries,” said Costello.
Costello said he could have understood strategic limited tariffs as a tool to get to an agreement. But not this.
“It’s scary as hell to think about where we’re at and how widespread this is,” said Costello.
For perspective, Costello said Illinois has around $8.7 billion in agricultural exports per year. 80% of that goes to Canada, Mexico, and China, all places on which the federal administration has imposed tariffs.
“And that’s not adding everything in. You can’t talk about affordable housing and be in a trade war with Canada which is a huge lumber producer and supplier for the U.S.,” said Costello.
It’s not just tariffs hitting the ag sector.
“One of the situations everybody’s dealing with in agriculture right now is the lack of profitability. We’ve got the same prices, if you adjust to inflation, as we had in 1974, but our input costs have quadrupled in that same time period,” said Illinois Farm Bureau President Philip Nelson.
Nelson said the only input price that has gone down is the cost of diesel fuel.
“You got four seed companies that control about 80% of the seed market. You got four meat packers that control over 80% of the meat packing capacity. And you got about four fertilizer companies that do about 80% of the business worldwide,” said Nelson.
Nelson said he’s pleased Congress is looking at the lack of functional markets on inputs.
“I think we need to continue to look at that to have better transparency in those markets so that they work and they don’t just get set by the big four, you know, take it or leave it,” said Nelson.
Both Nelson and Costello agreed interest rates are still high.
Catherine Bertini is a former assistant secretary of agriculture in the Bush-41 administration, an emeritus professor at Syracuse University, and is now a distinguished fellow of Global Food and Agriculture at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Bertini was the first American to be appointed executive director of the United Nations World Food Program.
“It’s hard to find a bank that will want to lend to agricultural interests,” said Bertini during a Council on Foreign Relations briefing.
Bertini said the present crunch is mostly caused by tariff policies. Yet, farmers have always been subject to cycles.
“And then all of a sudden, boom markets got pulled out from under them. So what do they do?” said Bertini.
In the past, sometimes crops were sent abroad. That’s the rationale behind the World Food Program, to deal with surpluses.
“The U.S. administration isn’t doing much overseas. That could be an avenue for at least some. But it’s obviously not one that it’s explored, and not fast enough for those crops not to spoil,” said Bertini.
What the U.S. administration has done is propose $12 billion in aid — most of it for corn and soybean farmers. First, there’s a question about the timeliness of that. Bertini said the administration has yet to put out details on how farmers apply and get the money. Aid is supposed to be available by the end February 2026.
“That’s still quite a delay for guys and women that owe money for various reasons and didn’t get to sell their crops,” said Bertini.
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