All Considered, A Great Year for Exports

Feb 28, 2020

By Mike Rankin

For the second time in three years, total U.S. hay exports in 2019 eclipsed 4 million metric tons (MT). This was accomplished despite the flurry of trade battles that waged on and off during the past year.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) pegged 2019 total alfalfa and other hay (mostly grass) exports from the U.S. at almost 4.1 million MT, just shy of the 2017 record of 4.2 million MT. The past year’s total hay exports were 4.5% greater than 2018’s final tally.

Alfalfa

Alfalfa hay exports to all trade partners in 2019 totaled a record 2.7 million MT, just 21,000 MT above the previous high, which occurred in 2017. Alfalfa exports this past year exceeded 2018, another tariff-riddled year, by 5.5%.

Even with imposed tariffs that were 25% higher than normal for much of the year, China still holds down leading alfalfa trade partner status. In 2019, the country imported 865,393 MT of U.S. alfalfa (see graph below).

Exports to China were 0.7% behind 2018 and far behind the record 1.17 million MT that it purchased in 2017. Monthly export totals to China during 2019 were a roller coaster; they ranged from 25,461 MT in January to 128,582 MT in October.

China will most likely remain our biggest alfalfa trade partner into the future, and with tariffs now back to pre-trade war levels, there is optimism that the market will grow along with China’s dairy industry.

Japan’s alfalfa hay import total of 663,994 MT was 14.2% higher than 2018 and was that country’s largest amount of U.S. alfalfa purchased since 2009. The past year marked the fifth consecutive year of higher U.S. alfalfa exports to Japan.

Saudi Arabia, the third leading importer of U.S. alfalfa, was something of a good news-bad news story in 2019. The country imported 417,518 MT of U.S. alfalfa, but that total was over 63,000 MT (13.2%) less than was acquired in 2018.

For several years, we have heard reports of a Saudi phase out of alfalfa production to conserve water. Although that has occurred to some extent, it apparently isn’t happening as rapidly as was expected. Even so, we need to keep in mind that as recently as 2014 the Saudis were essentially nonplayers in the U.S. alfalfa export market.

Rounding out the top 5 of U.S. alfalfa importers in 2019 were the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and South Korea. The UAE’s total of 303,022 MT was 25.7% greater than 2018 but still only half as much as what that country imported during the early 2010s.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.