Analysts Waiting For China To Act On Phase One Trade Deal

Analysts in the U.S. are waiting on the Chinese to make their move.

 

Dan Basse is president of AgResource Company in Chicago.

 

"We have this phase one agreement, the agreement was signed on the 15th of January. There's a 30-day period to implement that agreement. That means February 15th, which is this weekend. So next week we'll really start to see if the Chinese have any intentions of buying U.S. grains or ag products. It will be very important to the markets. There may be a little bit of flexibility to coronavirus, but overall the traders here want to see, taste and feel the Chinese demand before they get too rambunctious on the long side of the market."

 

The USDA released its February WASDE report Tuesday morning, which Basse says was very conservative with estimates about the Chinese phase one agreement.

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.