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Biofuels Can Solve Ag Crisis

Agriculture is suffering, and it’s only a matter of time before we all feel the repercussions. If we don’t fight, if we allow this to happen, this crisis will not only affect Iowa farmers but will cause a ripple effect throughout the Midwest, our urban cities and our entire nation.

Plummeting farm income, falling land values and depressed commodity prices over the last few years threaten to undo the prosperity of the previous decade. All indicators point to farms in trouble.

Farm income nationwide is projected to be 46 percent lower than the 2013 high after a third straight year of decline.

Iowa cropland value has dropped 17.6 percent since 2013, according to Purdue University, and crop surpluses threaten to further erode that value.

The Kansas City Fed reports a “growing sense of risk in the farm sector” leading to higher interest rates and demands of farm real estate as collateral on short-term operating loans.

We do not have to face the kind of crisis rural America suffered in the 1980s. A market for our commodities exists that can benefit not only farmers and rural areas, but every American driver. Biofuels like ethanol are the solution.

When the buildout of ethanol infrastructure happened in the 2000s, all the metrics for agricultural success shot up. New records in farm income prompted investment in agriculture, and as a result we’ve seen more efficiency in farming and higher grain yields than ever before, both trends that continue to improve. Every American reaps the benefits of these investments in agriculture.

Those higher yields and greater efficiency have been a blessing and a curse as today we see an oversupply of commodities that have depressed prices. Because the U.S. role in ag exports has diminished as other nations grow their own production, to balance our grain supplies we need a growing market. Biofuels supply that.

In November, the EPA made a sound decision to fully enforce the Renewable Fuel Standard and improve options for American-made biofuels at the pump. That commitment must remain strong as a new Congress takes effect this year. We must grow consumers’ access to E15 — a 15 percent ethanol blend —  by removing arbitrary restrictions during the summer driving season. E15 could provide a market for up to 2 billion bushels of corn to stabilize commodity prices. Every time a new E15 pump is installed, I hear reports that it is a top seller, providing great performance at an affordable price.

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.