Bullish Cattle Report Does Not Indicate Herd Expansion

By Bernt Nelson

• USDA’s Cattle on Feed report indicates continued tight feeder cattle supplies. USDA estimates cattle on feed on Nov. 2 were 11.7 million head, down 2%, or 260,000 head from 2024. Approximately 2.04 million head of cattle were placed into feedlots, down 227,000 head, or 10%, from 2024.
• Halted imports from Mexico are contributing to the decline in cattle on feed in U.S. The U.S. has banned the import of live cattle from Mexico to protect the domestic herd from New World screwworm. This has resulted in 795,000 fewer head of cattle imported from Mexico between November 2024 and August 2025 compared to the same period between 2023 and 2024.
• Packing plant closures, among other factors, have led to lower cattle prices and massive market volatility. Falling cattle prices are coming at a time when cattle farmers are typically making decisions about whether to hold back heifers for breeding or place them on feed. Retaining heifers for breeding could lead to herd expansion in 2028, but with input costs at near-record levels and prices still 25% higher than a year ago, there is a lot of incentive for farmers to market cattle rather than hold them back for breeding.

USDA released its first Cattle on Feed report (COF) since September, on Nov. 21. On the same day, Tyson Foods also announced the closure of a beef processing facility in Lexington, Nebraska, and decreased capacity in its Amarillo, Texas, plant. These reductions in capacity will have longer-term market impacts. This Market Intel evaluates the COF report, decreased processing plant capacity and other key pieces of the supply chain that could have lasting impacts on cattle markets.