A recent study conducted by North Carolina State University delved into the potential consequences of an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak and the efficacy of control strategies. ASF, a highly contagious viral disease with a mortality rate of up to 100%, poses a severe threat to the swine industry. The researchers utilized a computer model, PigSpread, to simulate the spread of ASF among swine farms in the southeastern United States.
The study incorporated data from 2,294 swine farms, including their location, production type, capacity, and movement information, into the epidemiological model. Through approximately 230,000 simulations over a 140-day timeframe, the researchers evaluated the course of infection with and without control strategies.
Between-farm swine movements were identified as the primary route of transmission, accounting for 71% of disease spread. Local spread and vehicular transmission contributed approximately 14% each to the overall transmission dynamics.
The study revealed that implementing control actions, such as quarantine, depopulation, movement restrictions, contact tracing, and enhanced surveillance, resulted in a reduction of secondary infections by an average of 79% within the 140-day period. In some simulations where all control strategies were employed, no further affected farms were observed within that timeframe in 29% of cases.
However, the researchers emphasized that the results should be viewed with caution and recognized as somewhat optimistic. Further investigation is needed to determine the specific requirements for effectively controlling an ASF outbreak. It was acknowledged that the epidemic's duration would likely exceed the 140-day timeframe, even with the implementation of comprehensive control measures.
Source : wisconsinagconnection