This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) October outlook report for the 2025-26 crop year, based on information available up to November 14, 2025. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. Uncertainty in the Canadian and international grain markets remains elevated due to ongoing geopolitical risks.
For 2025-2026, crop year, the outlook incorporates crop production estimates from Statistics Canada’s (STC) September 17, 2025, release of the Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates, which were based on information as of the end of August. Production of all principal field crops is estimated to have increased 2.6% year-over-year (y/y), which would be 8% above the previous five-year average, largely due to improved yields y/y in Western Canada. Harvest in Western Canada is complete. Initial indications from the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) on grain harvest and export quality suggest that the quality of the 2025 Western Canadian crop is generally normal to above normal, except for durum. In Eastern Canada, harvest is winding up, with better than anticipated yields despite drier than normal conditions across parts of Ontario, Quebec, and much of the Maritimes. Supplies of principal field crops are up marginally from last year as a lower carry-in moderates the rise in production.
Demand for Canada’s principal field crops remains strong with usage of grains and oilseeds forecast to fall slightly while total demand for pulses and special crops increases by 4%. Total domestic use is projected slightly up on higher consumption of grains and oilseeds while Canadian consumption of pulse and special crops falls marginally. Post-harvest movement of field crops has been smooth with farmer deliveries in Western Canada running marginally ahead of last year based on CGC data. Exports of CGC-monitored crops are down 10% compared to November last year mostly due to lower canola shipments while domestic disappearance is ahead of last year’s pace. Carry-out for all principal field crops is projected to rise by about 30% on increased ending stocks for both grains and oilseeds, and pulses and special crops. Prices for most principal field crops are lower y/y except for flaxseed and mustard, which are up slightly.
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