This report is an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) May Outlook report for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 crop year, based on information and international trade policies in effect up to June 12, 2026. In Canada, the crop year begins on August 1 and ends on Juy 31 for most crops; for corn and soybeans, the crop year begins on September 1 and ends on August 31. Market volatility persists across the grain sector, with ongoing geopolitical pressures driving production costs higher and raising the likelihood of interruptions to transportation networks and supply chains.
For 2025-26, the report incorporates Statistics Canada’s (STC) March 31, 2026, stocks data, showing total stocks of principal field crops up 15.4% year over year and 19.3% above the 2021-25 average. Supplies of principal field crops grew 7% in 2025-26 following a record harvest. Canadian products continue to move swiftly through the licensed elevator system with total producer deliveries to date up 6% compared to the previous year, according to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC). Meanwhile, shipments to international destinations trail last year’s volumes and total Canadian exports are forecast to drop 1% in 2025-26 compared to the previous year. Closing stocks are forecast to grow 50% from 2024-25 on strong production and lower exports year-over-year. Prices for most crops are seen lower in 2025-26 as ample supplies and subdued trade weigh on prices, except for corn, canola, soybeans, and mustard seed, which are posting mild to moderate gains.
For 2026-27, the Outlook incorporates Statistics Canada's March 5, 2026, crop area estimates showing that farmers intend to seed less field crops in 2026 compared to last season, resulting in a 10% drop in production. As of the first week of June, seeding across Canada is advancing well, with some areas reaching completion as producers begin to focus on crop maintenance. According to the Canadian Drought Monitor, precipitation was highly variable across the country over the month of May. Much of British Columbia, western Alberta, and the southern Prairies remained drier than normal, while eastern Alberta and parts of Manitoba were wetter. Overall, as of May 31, 2026, 25% of the country, including 21% of agricultural land, was rated Abnormally Dry or in Drought, except for Atlantic Canada, which received well above normal precipitation.
Production of field crops is forecast 10% lower year-over-year, assuming trend yields which remain sensitive to any extreme weather. Supplies are forecast to drop only 4%, bolstered by large inventories. Domestic use is expected to grow 1% while trade remains subdued, dropping 4% on reduced demand from some key import regions. The total volume of stocks is projected to drop 19% but remain relatively comfortable. Prices are seen steady to higher in 2026-27 except for flaxseed, chickpeas, mustard seed, canary seed, and sunflower seed.
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