USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Cattle report January 30, which included a number of revisions to the January 1, 2014 inventory. Total cattle and calf inventories for January 1, 2014, were almost 800 thousand head larger than the prior estimate for 2014. Included in the new higher numbers were 42 thousand additional beef cows and about 80 thousand heifers retained for beef cow replacement. The 2014 calf crop was also revised upward by 300 thousand head. In addition to generally revising January 1, 2014 cattle numbers upward, NASS also reported higher January 1, 2015 inventory numbers for many categories. The total cattle and calf inventory increased about 1 percent from 2014, with about 2 percent more beef cows and 4 percent more heifers for beef cow replacement. Producers indicated that they expect 7 percent more heifers to calve during 2015. States with the largest increases in all cattle and calves include Oklahoma and Texas, with a 6- and 7-percent increase, respectively. Overall, the total cattle and calf inventory is still historically low, but coupled with revisions to 2014, the report shows a faster than anticipated herd expansion, with more beef cows and a large retention of heifers.
Anecdotal comments have suggested that some cows may have been put on pasture or feed for weight gains prior to slaughter. This strategy makes sense in light of low-priced corn and the available cornstalk pasture that cows can use to good advantage. These cows have some potential to be sold as either breeding cows, particularly if bred, or as slaughter cattle. The same potential pertains to heifers— they could be added to the cow herd or sold as feeder cattle and placed on feed. The NASS Cattle report also indicated larger numbers of cattle on small-grains pastures than have been reported in several years. The estimate of 1.93 million head for January 1, 2015, was just ahead of the 1.92 million head in January 1, 2010. Prior to 2010, the year in which cattle on small grains pastures exceeded this year’s estimate was 2007. This level of small grains pasturing is somewhat surprising because of continuing drought conditions in most of the Southern Plains. Some of these cattle are beginning to come off wheat pasture to be placed in further stocker programs or, more likely, in feedlots.
The number of cattle on feed in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000-plus head was up 1 percent on January 1, 2015 (Cattle on Feed, January 23, 2015). Placements in December dropped 8 percent compared with 2013. In addition, marketings of fed cattle in December 2014 were 5 percent lower than in 2013.
Beef Production Down in December 2014
Livestock Slaughter, released January 22, 2015, reported a 2-percent decrease in beef production in December 2014 over the previous December. However, cattle slaughter in December 2014 was 5 percent lower than December 2013. December 2014's All-Fresh beef retail value was $6.00 per pound, up nearly $0.96 from last year. Retail Choice beef prices in December 2014 were $6.31 per pound compared with $5.36 in December 2013.
Source: USDA