By Julio Bellodi Cortarelli and Grant Gardner
Every year, producers face the same question: when should I price the new crop? Price too early and a summer weather rally can leave you watching prices climb with regret. Wait, and the rally may never come. So, when during the year do good pre-harvest pricing opportunities tend to show up?
In this article, we analyze daily settlement prices (CME Group) for December corn futures across 35 contract years (1990-2024) and November soybean futures across 32 (1993-2024), tracking each contract through the final year of its life, from the day the prior year’s contract expired (the roll) to the day it expired itself. The soybean series starts later because 1993 is the first year in our data with a complete contract of daily prices. We define a good marketing day as any day the price closed in the top quarter of that contract year’s prices. The hit rate is the percentage of each month’s trading days that were good marketing days, adjusted for the differing number of trading days in a month. If good days were spread evenly across the year, every month would sit near 25%.
On average, corn shows a clear pattern (Figure 1). Every month from the December roll through June averages a hit rate at or above 28%, and then the rate falls away: 21% in July, 13% in August, and 12% in September. Soybeans are flatter: every month averages between 20% and 31%, and no month stands out. In both crops, however, the vertical lines matter more than the bars. Every month’s range reaches zero, so even the best months deliver almost nothing in some years, and most months have also topped 80% of their days in their best years. Corn’s late summer is the exception on the upside: even its strongest years rarely pushed August above 40%.
Figure 1 may not line up with intuition. Most producers can remember a year when the best prices showed up in a summer weather rally, and seasonal price averages back that memory up (Maples and Gardner, 2023). Rally years happen, but most years are not rally years, and the average reflects that. What separates one kind of year from another is the balance sheet. When we cut the data into three groups by the marketing year’s final stocks-to-use ratio (ending stocks divided by total use, USDA Economic Research Service), the good marketing days land in a different part of the year for each group (Figure 2).
In tight-stocks years, both crops behave the same way: the good days come at harvest and after. Corn’s harvest window runs a 38% hit rate and soybeans 43%, well above the 25% benchmark, while the winter months in both crops fall well below it.
In average years, the crops part ways. Corn’s opportunities shift to the winter window while its harvest hit rate collapses to 7%. Soybeans instead concentrate in the growing season, the classic weather-market year.
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