By Don Shurley
Farmers say they intend to plant 9.87 million acres of cotton this year down 11.8% from last year. This is based on a survey of producers conducted by USDA during the first two weeks of March. These estimates reflect farmer “intentions” as of the survey period.
These 9.87 million acres compare to 9.56 million acres estimated by the National Cotton Council (NCC) in February, and 10.0 million acres projected in the USDA Outlook Forum also later in February. Most industry observers were expecting a reduction in acres planted of 12 to 15% or more. So, 9.87 million is within most expectations but the reduction is on the lower side.
Prices (new crop December 2025 futures) have jumped to near 71 cents. Price did not react Monday on the released numbers but seemed to have a “delayed” rally Tuesday. The 9.87 million acres number cannot be considered a surprisingly low number, as it’s higher than the already known NCC estimate and close to the Outlook Forum number. So, it’s hard to gauge whether or not 9.87 million acres is really a factor at this point.
The first USDA estimate of actual acres planted will not be out until June 30th. Until then, we’ll go with the 9.87 number and begin to factor in weather and crop conditions. This 9.87 “intentions” is subject to change due to prices, costs, and weather.
Source : ufl.edu