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Crop Report – August 29, 2019

Manure application after wheat harvest is occurring and provides an excellent opportunity for taking a sample for analysis. In addition to the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium content of the manure, testing for micronutrients (zinc, magnesium, manganese) and sulphur, C:N ratio, organic matter content and pH will highlight the full value and give some insight into nutrient availability. Sulphur content can be significant, often providing 20 to 30 lbs of slow-release elemental sulphur. For solid manure, C:N ratio indicates how quickly the organic nitrogen portion of the manure is available.  In liquid manure where ammonium nitrogen levels are high, a high pH – greater than 7.8 – can lead to more rapid volatilization. When manure sampling, take sub samples periodically during application, then mix the subsamples into a freezer bag size sample for solid manure or a plastic jar with lid for liquid samples. Keep the sample cool until shipping to an Ontario accredited lab. Liquid manure samples should be agitated, and representative of the manure being applied to the field.
 
In need of extra forage?
 
Now is the time to consider planting spring cereals for fall forage if you think you will need more inventory before winter. However, growth rates in the fall are slower so it will likely take more than 45 days to reach boot stage. Therefore, they should be seeded as soon as possible and no later than the first week of September. If they are being used for grazing they should not be pushed beyond mid-September. 
 
Ontario research has shown that the “recipe” is 80 lbs/ac oats + 50 lbs/ac nitrogen.  However, a big factor in that recommendation is the economics of seed costs. Given the challenging year and limited supply of oats available, growers may want to consider alternative cereal species for forage production. Forage quality does not vary significantly amongst the different cereal species; however, yields do. Therefore, don’t be afraid to shop around and work out your own cost of production budgets to determine the best forage options for your operation. 
 
Don’t give up on planting winter wheat!
 
While the optimum planting date for many parts of the province is anywhere from mid to late September (Figure 1), it is unlikely soybeans will be ready for harvest by then.  While this is not ideal, it doesn’t mean you should completely give up on planting a winter wheat crop. As we have seen in the past, successful wheat crops can be planted beyond the optimum planting dates for your region if the conditions are right. If the forecast in your region is showing reasonable temperatures that would provide at least 130 Growing Degree Days (GDD) to allow the wheat seed to germinate and emerge before winter, then plant your wheat as soon as you can. This can be done by following the combine in the field as soybeans are harvested. However, to have greater success, make sure the conditions are FIT, all soybean residue is evenly spread, and the drill can easily cut through the residue. Double check that all planting equipment is in good working order well before you get to the field to avoid any further delays.
 
 
You should also consider using a starter fertilizer. Ontario research has shown repeatedly that winter wheat is highly responsive to a phosphorus-containing starter fertilizer. Starter fertilizer provides nutrients for early growth and promotes root development, ultimately improving winter survival and crop uniformity the following spring. Seed-placed starter fertilizer has shown to increase yields, on average, by 7.5 bushels per acre. Ontario research has also shown that dry granular fertilizers are as effective as liquid 6-24-6 (Table 1 and 2).
 
 
Adjusting your seeding depths and populations will also help compensate for delayed planting or less than ideal conditions that may occur at planting. Target to seed your winter wheat at a depth of about 1 inch; any shallower and the crop becomes more vulnerable during the winter months. It is important to remember that it takes 50 Growing Degree Days (GDDs) for wheat to emerge for every inch of seeding depth. So, if you are seeding your wheat deeper than 1 inch, more GDDs are required to get it out of the ground. Seeding rates should also be adjusted if seeding is delayed beyond the optimum timing. Rates should be increased by 200,000 seeds/week to a maximum of 2.2 million seeds/acre. Higher seeding rates when planting is delayed will also assist with the reduced tillering that may occur before winter.
Source : Field Crop

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.