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Details Will Determine Effectiveness Of Throne Speech Proposals, Says CFA President

Canadian Federation of Agriculture President Mary Robinson says overall, she is pleased with what she heard about the ag sector in last week's federal Throne speech.
 
Robinson says a few of the proposals align with what CFA has been working toward, including making the food chain more resilient, compensating supply-managed farmers for trade deals and recognizing farmers' efforts in fighting climate change.
 
"But the details of these initiatives will determine how effective they'll be," she added, noting CFA will work with government to ensure those programs are rolled out in an effective manner that works for farmers.
 
However, Robinson says she would have liked to have seen proper investments announced for the sector that would unleash the potential Canadian agriculture has as an economic engine, particularly in post-COVID-19 recovery. She points to a recent report issued by RBC outlining the sector could generate an additional $11 billion in GDP by 2030 with proper investments.
 
"If that happens that would mean that the GDP contributions of Canadian agriculture would exceed the combination of automotive manufacturing and aeronautical...so obviously this Throne speech did not bring that kind of confidence and investment on the part of government," she said.
 
Moving forward, Robinson noted CFA will also work with government to ensure those investments are made.
 
"When you look around at all of the different sectors and industries in Canada, I don't think there's one that is better poised to be a big economic contributor than the production of food," she said.
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.