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Ethanol Export Numbers Good Despite COVID-19

The numbers for the most recent marketing year that ended on August 31 show there is good news for U.S. ethanol exports.

U.S. ethanol exports reached the fifth-highest total on record despite the market challenges brought on by COVID-19. Exports were down eight percent from the previous marketing year, reflecting the challenges that COVID restrictions had on fuel demand and trade. The first half of the year’s exports occurred before the widespread stay-at-home orders were issued that drastically lowered fuel demand around the world.

“The lingering effects of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders were reflected in the global ethanol trade in the most recent marketing year,” says Brian Healy, director of global ethanol market development for the U.S. Grains Council. “Looking forward, more aggressive blend rates that have already been set, or will need to be set, to meet emissions reduction goals, will support increased global ethanol demand and trade.”

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.