This is the AccuWeather.com fall forecast for Canada, which includes the months of September, October and November 2014.
Brett Anderson covers both short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada for AccuWeather.com.You can also follow him for quick updates on the current and future weather patterns via his twitter @BrettAWX
Fall 2014 temperature departure forecast
Fall 2014 precipitation departure forecast
Brief notes on the forecast:
Unusual warmth will persist into the fall across western Canada. We predict a warmer fall compared to normal for British Columbia (Vancouver region). This is due in part to sea surface temperatures off the West Coast in the northeast Pacific remaining 1-2 degrees C above average and dry surface conditions from the summer.
Overall, the fall will be drier compared to normal for interior western Canada (including Calgary, Alberta) which is unfortunate news for wildfire containment in British Columbia. The pattern may briefly switch during October leading to some wetter conditions. A large portion of British Columbia and northwestern Alberta has received only 50 to 75 percent of normal rainfall this summer.
Waves of chilly air coming down through Manitoba and into northern Ontario could lead to an early frost/freeze in this region; otherwise, much of this region will end up slightly cooler and wetter compared to normal.
Areas from Windsor, Ontario, through Toronto and up into Ottawa and Montreal, Quebec, will start out the fall slightly cooler than normal then they may experience an extended period of Indian Summer early in October before chillier conditions (relative to normal) return during the month of November.
The first half of fall will be drier compared to normal from eastern Ontario through Quebec, then a more active storm track will lead to wetter conditions and possible early season snowfall in November.
The fall will be relatively warm and humid from eastern Nova Scotia through Newfoundland with the opportunity for several significant precipitation events, as the abnormally warm Atlantic waters in the region (+3 to +4 C above normal SST's) will have a significant influence. Much of this region has experienced a hot and dry summer.
Much of the agricultural areas of southern Saskatchewan through western Manitoba have had a wet growing season. Near-average precipitation is anticipated for the upcoming season.
El Nino conditions are likely to take hold for the fall, but its main impacts will not likely be felt until the winter for most of Canada. However, it now appears that this upcoming El Nino will not be as strong as previously thought.
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