December WASDE Report ‘Positive for U.S. Farmers'

Dec 19, 2024

USDA released its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report on Dec. 10, and J.P. Morgan analysts welcomed it as good news for U.S. farmers.

“We view today’s report as positive for US farmers as corn ending stocks are well below consensus, which should be supportive of prices, partially offset by a lowered farm gate price for soybeans,” said J.P. Morgan analyst Tami Zakaria in a note to investors. “Meanwhile, 2024/25 U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks are in line and approximately 2.5% below consensus, respectively. Farm gate price projection is unchanged for U.S. new crop wheat and corn.

In the U.S., 2024/25 ending stocks are estimated at 1.738 billion bushels of corn (vs. consensus 1.902 billion bushels and 1.760 billion bushels in 2023/24), 470 million bushels of soybeans (vs. consensus 467 million bushels and 342 million bushels in 2023/24), and 795 million bushels of wheat (vs. consensus 815MM bu and 696 million bushels in 2023/24). US 2024/25 stocks-to-use (STU) are projected at 11.4% for corn (vs. prior 12.9%, and 11.8% in 2023/24), 10.8% for soybeans (vs. prior 10.8%, and 8.3% in 2023/24), and 39.8% for wheat (vs. prior 41.3%, and 38.3% in 2023/24).

Click here to see more...

Video: Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”

After a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump?
12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum.
U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B.
U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days.
But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively.
The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has.
Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers.
After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble.
75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk!
It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!

USDA nutrition hubs expand access nationwide

Grain Millers Canada Corp. undergoes CGC license change