USDA released its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report on Dec. 10, and J.P. Morgan analysts welcomed it as good news for U.S. farmers.
“We view today’s report as positive for US farmers as corn ending stocks are well below consensus, which should be supportive of prices, partially offset by a lowered farm gate price for soybeans,” said J.P. Morgan analyst Tami Zakaria in a note to investors. “Meanwhile, 2024/25 U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks are in line and approximately 2.5% below consensus, respectively. Farm gate price projection is unchanged for U.S. new crop wheat and corn.
In the U.S., 2024/25 ending stocks are estimated at 1.738 billion bushels of corn (vs. consensus 1.902 billion bushels and 1.760 billion bushels in 2023/24), 470 million bushels of soybeans (vs. consensus 467 million bushels and 342 million bushels in 2023/24), and 795 million bushels of wheat (vs. consensus 815MM bu and 696 million bushels in 2023/24). US 2024/25 stocks-to-use (STU) are projected at 11.4% for corn (vs. prior 12.9%, and 11.8% in 2023/24), 10.8% for soybeans (vs. prior 10.8%, and 8.3% in 2023/24), and 39.8% for wheat (vs. prior 41.3%, and 38.3% in 2023/24).
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