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Interest Rates Hold Steady, Federal Reserve Downgrades Economic Outlook

Benchmark interest rates will remain unchanged — keeping the key borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.25% — as the Federal Reserve, in its meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today (March 19), says the economy is expected to grow more slowly this year and in 2026 compared to how they viewed growth 3 months ago. The Federal Reserve did signal it expects to cut rates later in 2025.

The FOMC, which sets the rates, downgraded its collective outlook for economic growth. A post-meeting statement from  FOMC noted an elevated level of ambiguity surrounding the current climate. “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased,” the document stated. “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a news conference after the meeting that President Donald Trump’s tariffs have started to push up inflation a bit and would likely stall out the progress the central bank has seen in reducing inflation in recent years, according to news reports.

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Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”

Video: Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”


After a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump?
12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum.
U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B.
U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days.
But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively.
The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has.
Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers.
After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble.
75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk!
It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!