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FCC: With Margins on Thin Ice, Growers Face Tough Seeding Choices This Spring

As the seeding window approaches across Canada, growers are entering the 2025 planting season with more uncertainty than usual — that’s the message in a new analysis from Farm Credit Canada written by senior economists Justin Shepherd and Graeme Crosbie.

Ongoing trade disputes, including new tariffs from China, are adding to market volatility and complicating decisions around crop selection, FCC says—particularly at a time when cereal crops are seeing a resurgence in price competitiveness compared to oilseeds.

According to the analysis, prices for key crops started the year strong, with canola and wheat futures jumping by 8% and 9%, respectively, in mid-February. But gains were short-lived. The announcement of Chinese tariffs in March triggered a sharp decline in canola prices.

Although there’s been a partial recovery in recent weeks, market conditions remain highly unpredictable.

Other major crops like soybeans and corn have followed a similar path. Prices climbed through late January and February, only to dip in March as reports of a large South American soybean harvest exerted downward pressure, FCC notes.

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