Last week we finally had hog carcass prices averaging over $100/cwt. The futures market has been forecasting $100 prices for some time. Last year June, July, August and September each averaged over $100/cwt.
Hog slaughter has been near year-ago levels. Recent hog slaughter has been slightly higher than implied by the June market hog inventory. U.S. hog slaughter over the last 8 weeks (since the beginning of June) has been up 0.76% year-over-year. The heavy weight market hog inventory in the June Hogs and Pigs report implied slaughter during this period would be up 0.49% from a year ago. That is a very small difference.
The market hog inventory on June 1 was a tiny 0.05% larger than a year ago. This implies that summer and fall hog slaughter will be nearly the same as last year. The June market hog inventory has been fairly consistent for the last six years.
Hog slaughter weights have been higher than last year. Pork production is expected to be up slightly this year due largely to heavier slaughter weights. The long-term trend is for hog slaughter weights to increase by one pound per year.
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