No matter how you slice it, the demand for U.S. pork has shifted downward in 2026. The leaders in the industry need first to realize this and accept this and then work to fix it. In my opinion, neither has happened yet.
Through August the year-to-date hog slaughter is down .7% from last year. However, due to heavier average carcass weights this year, year-to-date pork production is up .4% during the same period. At 18.4 billion pounds, total production is nearly identical with last year’s 18.35 billion pounds through August. Pork exports for 2026 are projected to be up 3% and record large. Pork imports are projected to be up 5%. Note that unlike beef, the U.S. exports far more pork than we import. Total exports for 2026 are projected at 7.175 billion pounds compared with total imports projected at 1.174 billion. So, clearly, any problem with the demand for U.S. pork does not lie in the export market, but solely in the domestic market.
Do you still not believe me when I state that pork demand has shifted downward this year? With production nearly even, let’s compare prices versus last year. Cash hog prices stand near $91.16 vs $107.95 this time last year. The hog carcass stands at $92.86 vs $113.30 last year. Hams are worth 72 cents vs $1.06 last year, bellies are priced at $1.90 vs $2.16, loins are $1.05 vs $1.13 and butts are priced at $1.24 compared to $1.37 last year. Now do you get my drift?
The number one factor contributing to the downward shift in the demand for pork is the surge in poultry production, currently projected to rise over 3% this year. Pork is losing dramatically in the chicken war both at retail and at fast food outlets. Pork has also been proven to not be a substitute for beef. Do the leaders of the pork industry realize this? Pork is in direct competition with chicken and losing. Economic conditions, of course, are responsible for much of this.
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