FutureMetrics suggests coal-to-wood pellet conversions could meet US power demand

Sep 03, 2025

A new white paper from energy consultancy FutureMetrics LLC suggests that converting US coal-fired power plants to burn wood pellets could help address an anticipated shortfall in electricity capacity over the next decade.

Authored by FutureMetrics President William Strauss, the report highlights a projected rise in US electricity demand of 175 gigawatts (GW), driven in part by increased consumption from artificial intelligence operations. At the same time, more than 110 GW of coal-fired capacity is scheduled for retirement, creating a potential gap of nearly 300 GW.

Strauss points out that many nuclear plants are already operating beyond their expected lifespans, while current policies constrain the expansion of wind and solar power, as well as the energy storage needed to manage their intermittency. Although new gas-fired plants are planned, they are unlikely to close the projected gap.

The white paper notes that wood pellet fuel has successfully replaced coal in UK power stations, where most pellets are imported from the US. Last year, the US exported just under seven million metric tons of wood pellets to Britain.

With a forthcoming subsidy change in 2027, Strauss predicts that millions of tons of pellets will become available domestically, alongside further potential for US production.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.