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Government of Canada Delivers New Programs for Supply Management Sector

Ottawa, Ontario – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

The Government of Canada announced today a series of new programs and initiatives for supply-managed producers and processors to support them throughout the implementation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Canada-EU Trade Agreement. Under both agreements, the three pillars of the supply management system will remain protected.

The following programs will be implemented:

  1. The Income Guarantee Program will keep producers whole by providing 100 per cent income protection to producers for a full 10 years from the day TPP comes into force. Income support assistance will continue on a tapered basis for an additional five years, for a total of 15 years. $2.4 billion is available for this program.
  2. The Quota Value Guarantee Program will protect producers against reduction in quota value when the quota is sold following the implementation of TPP. $1.5 billion has been set aside for this demand-driven program, which will be in place for 10 years.

The Government also announced two additional programs:

  1. The $450 million-Processor Modernization Program will provide processors in the supply-managed value chain with support to further advance their competitiveness and growth.
  2. The Market Development Initiative will assist supply-managed groups in promoting and marketing their top-quality products. To support the initiative $15 million in new funding will be added to the AgriMarketing Program.

In addition to the long-term $4.3-billion investment outlined above, the Government will intensify on-going anti-circumvention measures that will enhance our border controls. These measures include requiring certification for spent fowl, preventing importers from circumventing import quotas by adding sauce packets to chicken products, and excluding supply-managed products from the Government of Canada’s Duties Relief Program. Cheese compositional standards, introduced by the Government of Canada in 2008, have been maintained. The Government remains committed to ensuring they are enforced, so the standards we have for Canadian cheese are fully maintained.

The Canadian Dairy Commission and the Farm Products Council of Canada will work with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to ensure the Income Guarantee and Quota Value Guarantee programs are delivered to producers in an effective and efficient manner. The Government will continue to work closely with dairy, poultry and egg producers and the entire supply-managed sector to implement these initiatives.

These Cabinet-approved initiatives will support producers and processors throughout the implementation period of TPP and the Canada-EU Trade Agreement.

The TPP will secure new market access opportunities for Canadian dairy, poultry and egg exports. Dairy, poultry and egg producers and processors will benefit over time from increased duty-free access to the United States and all other TPP countries. This will include complete tariff elimination on some specialty cheeses, including several artisanal cheeses, entering the United States.

Despite significant and broad demands from several of our TPP negotiating partners, Canada has offered only limited new access for supply-managed products. This access, which will be granted through quotas phased in over five years, amounts to a small fraction of Canada’s current annual production: 3.25% for dairy (with a significant majority of the additional milk and butter being directed to value-added processing), 2.3% for eggs, 2.1% for chicken, 2% for turkey and 1.5% for broiler hatching eggs.

Source: AAFC


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2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid

Video: 2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid


The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026.
Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork!
USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026.
Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020.
The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration.
After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days!
Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term.
Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling.
The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027.
After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture.
The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived.
The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-2025 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.