Grain Markets show volatility with Russia's war on the Ukraine

Feb 28, 2022

Russia continues to wage war on the Ukraine.

Neil Townsend, the Chief Market Analyst for Farmlink Grainfox, says it's a terrible, terrible situation, and he hopes things can reach a peaceful resolve.

The two countries are major agricultural exporters of wheat, with Ukraine also a key supplier of corn, sunflower oil and rapeseed (canola).

The Chief Market Analyst for Farmlink Grainfox, Neil Townsend, says in terms of the agriculture markets, it's going to be very volatile and disruptive.

"In terms of grains and oilseed markets, it's going to be extremely disruptive. We saw a major upswing in the futures markets on Thursday, then a major downswing on Friday and a major upswing today. I don't know who's trading the futures, I don't know why they're trading the futures in this matter. I mean, to me, there's nothing that says certainty in the markets. We just don't know what they're going to be able to export over the last remaining months of this marketing year. We don't know what the situation is going to be for the next marketing year. And I think from a Canadian perspective, that really means that any grains and oilseeds that we have that are unpriced have the potential to be much more valuable. I mean its unfortunate that we need to take advantage of such a catastrophe, but I mean, that's the reality. I think that the only thing people really need to realize is that it's going to be marketing under extreme conditions of uncertainty and volatility. So you know, a price one day might be there, might be not there the next day, might be out of the market for a while, might be back into the market. We just don't know."

He notes for producers that are worried about things changing dramatically up or down, there's nothing wrong with taking some risk off the table and just making a sale so that you know you can go about your business.

Townsend says Russia and the Ukraine are very critical to the world's supply and demand and very critical to the world's food supply and food security in a time of rapid inflation and a time when people are pushed into a food precarious place because of the higher costs.

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