Heat and Dryness Continue to Reduce Yields for Northern Plains Spring Wheat

Jul 05, 2017

GAITHERSBURG, MD - Very warm and dry conditions have been plaguing spring wheat across the Northern U.S. Plains, and yield potential continues to decline. Highs have topped 100 F in northeastern Montana, northern South Dakota, and southern North Dakota over the past few days, and rainfall has been quite limited across the majority of the region for the last two months. “The forecast doesn’t bode well for relief anytime soon,” says Don Keeney, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist for MDA Weather Services. Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal across the region for at least the next two weeks, and rainfall should remain rather sparse also. “Spring wheat is pushing through the moisture-sensitive heading stage, and additional significant reductions in yield potential are likely as the hot and dry pattern remains in place,” said Keeney.

Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.