U.S. pork production continues to run ahead of year-ago levels despite relatively little growth in hog slaughter, as heavier market weights help offset constrained hog supplies.
But those additional pounds are reaching the market at a time when domestic and export demand are showing signs of pressure, contributing to weaker wholesale pork and hog prices, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts 2026 U.S. pork production at 27.9 billion pounds, approximately 1.1% above 2025, with heavier dressed weights playing an important role in maintaining production despite smaller hog numbers.
At the same time, U.S. pork exports are expected to reach approximately 7.2 billion pounds, 2.9% above 2025, although weakness in shipments to Mexico is slowing overall export growth.
Heavier Weights Add Pork to the Market
The production story this summer has been less about significantly more hogs and more about getting additional pounds from each animal.
Federally inspected hog slaughter in June and July was less than 1% above year-earlier levels. Pork production, however, increased approximately 2% in both months.
The difference has been dressed weights.
USDA estimates July’s average federally inspected dressed hog weight at approximately 214 pounds per head — nearly four pounds heavier than July 2025. June weights were approximately three pounds heavier than a year earlier.
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