Pork production in the U.S. continues to show resilience, with August 2024 production estimates coming in at approximately 2.28 billion pounds, virtually unchanged from August 2023’s total of 2.282 billion pounds. When accounting for an extra slaughter day last year, August 2024 production effectively increased by 4.2 percent over the previous year, driven largely by higher hog weights and consistent slaughter days.
Higher Hog Weights Drive Production
Since mid-May 2024, hog weights have been a significant factor in boosting production. In August, the estimated average federally inspected (FI) dressed weight for hogs was just over 210 pounds per head, compared to 206.4 pounds in August 2023. Analysts attribute this weight increase to lower feed costs rather than a backlog of hogs waiting for slaughter. This rise in weights has had a considerable effect on production levels.
Year-Over-Year Production Increase for Q3 2024
For the third quarter of 2024, pork production is forecasted to reach about 6.8 billion pounds, which is a 4 percent increase from the same period in 2023. Despite larger production, wholesale prices have seen pressure. July-August 2024 wholesale prices averaged $99.43 per cwt, around 9 percent lower than during the same period last year. This reduction in wholesale prices has also impacted live hog prices, with third-quarter hog prices expected to average $63 per cwt, down about 9 percent from a year ago. For the full year, hog prices are projected to average $59 per cwt, slightly higher than 2023. Looking ahead to 2025, hog prices are expected to average around $58 per cwt, 3 percent lower than the forecast for 2024.
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