IGC Raises World Grains Production, Supply to All-Time High

The International Grains Council (IGC) has upped its 2025-25 world grains production estimate to an all-time high, with total supply also expected to reach a new peak. 

Largely due to stronger outlooks for wheat and barley, the IGC is now projecting total world grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.412 billion tonnes, up 8 million from its August estimate and 3.7% above the previous year’s 2.325 billion. The bumper crop lifts the total estimated 2025-26 world grain supply above 3 billion tonnes for the first time ever, the IGC said in its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday. 

World total grains ending stocks for 2025-26 are pegged at 606 million tonnes, up 9 million from last month’s forecast – and above 589 million in 2024-25 - reflecting both larger-than-expected opening stocks and stronger output. However, that remains slightly below the five-year average, the IGC said. 

The IGC raised its 2025-26 world wheat production estimate 8 million tonnes from August to 819 million, well above 800 million a year earlier. Wheat production estimates for several countries were raised, including Canada, which saw projected output revised up to 36.6 million tonnes from last month’s 35.2 million. Australia production was raised to 33.8 million from 30.5 million, while the crop in Russia – the world’s largest exporter – was bumped up to 85 million tonnes from 83.7 million in August. 

Global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are now forecast at 270 million tonnes, up 6 million from last month and even with 2024-25. 

For corn, global production for 2025-26 is estimated at 1.297 billion tonnes this month, down 2 million from August but still above the year-earlier crop of 1.237 billion. At 294 million tonnes, estimated global corn ending stocks are steady from August and up from 283 million in 2024-25. 

The IGC sees 2025-26 world soybean output at 429 million tonnes this month, down 1 million from August but still 1 million above a year ago. Ending stocks, at 83 million tonnes, are down 2 million from last month and last year.