Impact Of June 30 USDA Acreage Report.

Jul 08, 2014

By Cory Walters

The June 30 USDA Acreage Report delivered planted acreage for both corn and soybeans in Nebraska. Grain market prices have responded to this information. To understand the impact of these numbers for Nebraska I compared them to our Market and Financial Outlook for Production Ag in Nebraska (UNL Extension Circular 865). The report highlights market, financial, and net farm income expectations for crop and livestock sectors in Nebraska for 2014.

The USDA Acreage report puts Nebraska 2014 corn acreage at 9.3 million planted acres and 8.75 million harvested acres. The planted acreage is 6.5% less than 2013 levels. For 2014 there is a 6% difference between planted and harvested acreage, a 50% increase over the 2013 difference of 4%. This difference is likely due to the adverse weather conditions Nebraska has experienced this spring. Futures market prices have declined since the report. Currently, December 2014 corn futures prices are trading in the $4.20 range.

Corn prices fell 7% and estimated Nebraska harvested corn acreage increased 2% since the release of UNL's Nebraska Market and Financial Outlook report. As a consequence, Nebraska 2014 corn cash receipt expectations fell from our spring estimate of $6,040 million to $5,687 million.

The USDA Acreage report puts 2014 Nebraska soybean acreage at 5.4 million planted acres and 5.35 million harvested acres. 2014 Nebraska planted acreage is both 12.5% larger than found in 2013 and a record number of planted acres. Futures market prices have declined since the report. Currently, November 2014 soybean futures prices are trading in the $11.30 range.

Soybean prices increased 4% and Nebraska harvested soybean acreage decreased 2% since our spring soybean cash receipt estimate. Our 2014 Nebraska soybean cash receipt expectations increased from our spring estimate of $2,966 million to $2,991 million.

The combined corn and soybean cash receipt estimates for Nebraska are now at $8,678 million, down $328 million (or 3.6%) from our spring estimate. Realized yields will play a significant role in the final Nebraska cash receipt number. Currently, U.S. corn crop condition ratings are very good with 75% in the good to excellent category. U.S. soybean crop condition ratings are also very good with 72% in the good to excellent category.

Between now and harvest, grain market prices will be sensitive to yield information. Higher expected yields will likely put downward pressure on futures markets prices. Higher volumes of grain to move at harvest coupled with increased transportation costs (especially for rail) will also likely put pressure on basis to widen or get worse.

Source:unl.edu

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