By Tim Carpenter
Diesel costs are likely to remain elevated through next year to the detriment of farmers struggling to turn a profit and consumers grappling with food inflation, a Kansas State University agricultural economist says.
Gregg Ibendahl, farm management specialist with KSU’s Extension Service, said the diesel market was influenced by soaring crude prices, limited refining capacity and supply system interruptions. Consequences of international conflict may sustain those conditions and hold prices at $6 to $7 per gallon into 2027 or beyond, he said.
Shipping in the Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz has been undermined since February by the United States’ war with Iran. In addition, diesel exports by Russia weakened since its full-scale military assault of Ukraine began in 2022. The only means of addressing pump prices would be to resolve global tensions and resume the regular international flow of fuel, Ibendahl said.
“Even in a best-case scenario, where the war in Ukraine winds down quickly and shipments through the Gulf normalize, it could easily take six months for the market to adjust,” Ibendahl said. “To see prices return to what we had earlier this year could take up to two years, even if everything goes right.”
Ibendahl said diesel costs in Kansas climbed approximately $2.25 per gallon during 2026. In Lawrence on Tuesday, the pump price of diesel stood at $6.29 per gallon. The national average for diesel climbed to $6.51 a gallon, according to AAA.
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