Grain markets have entered into what Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson refers to as “Holiday Mode,” acting a bit sluggish ever since coming off the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. In his most recent visit with SUNUP Host Lyndall Stout, Anderson explained that this is actually quite normal to see the markets behave this way during this time of year. Closer to Christmas, though, he expects things might pick up a little as farmers attempt to generate some shopping capital.
One thing that might also be affecting prices in the near future, is the Russian blockade that arrived this week at Ukrainian shipping ports. Anderson says a small rally occurred in the wheat market because of this but was overall very much inconsequential.
Russia in the meantime has reported this week that its projected planted wheat acres for 2019 will be exactly the same as the previous year - which yielded roughly 2.6 billion bushels. This announcement comes after Russia had announced plans to increase planted acres for all crops. Anderson says there is always a 50/50 chance after making those estimates known, that the actual numbers will fall on either side of that reported figure. He says it would good news for US producers if that number came in below the Russian government’s estimate - as it would most likely result in a positive price impact for domestic wheat prices.
At present, Anderson reports those domestic wheat prices are moving sideways within a low range, though he says it seems prices have broken from their recent downtrend that has maintained over the past month or so - increasing almost 10 cents. He says most all other commodities have likewise received small price increases as well.
Production here at home is mostly down across the commodities aside from corn, up from last year’s production of 126 bpa to 140. Wheat came in at 28 bpa versus last year’s 34. Sorghum is down from 57 bpa to 48 this year. Cotton decreased from 882 lbs./acre to 716 this year (although that was a near record last year). Canola also decreased, down to 880 lbs. per acre from 1,370 in 2017.
Anderson does not expect to see much change in acreage use here in Oklahoma during 2019 compared to this year. He says some minor changes are likely to occur but overall, much will stay the same.Click here to see more...