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Manitoba Seeding Now Ahead of Average Pace

Rapid progress in the fields this past week has Manitoba planting now slightly ahead of the average pace. 

Tuesday’s weekly crop report showed planting across the province at 30% complete, up from just 4% a week earlier. That is far ahead of just 3% last year and a single point ahead of the five-year average. 

Producers are planting a variety of crops based on soil and weather conditions. Soil temperatures were adequately warm and the seeding of more sensitive crop types such as soybeans has begun, the report said. 

Spring wheat and barley are sitting at 58% complete across the province with the Central region being the most advanced at 80% complete. Early planted fields have started to emerge. 

Winter cereal fertilizer applications are complete with field survival at 85-95% and only a few fields terminated. Winter cereal stands were growing rapidly and tillering in the warm temperatures with fields greening up dramatically. 

Canola planting is 6% done across the province, with sunflowers estimated at 13% done.  

Field pea planting is at 72% complete and soybeans 15%. 

Recent rains have helped stimulate pasture growth and the landscape is greening up nicely, the report said. Hay fields are in good shape, although icy conditions experienced this winter may have taken their toll on alfalfa plants in some locations. Those producers experiencing substantial winterkill are planting annual crops such as corn and sudan grass to offset the potential loss in feed production. Fertilization of hay and pasture acres is nearly complete. 

Several beef cattle operations have made the move to pasture, particularly in the south-east corner of the province. Others located farther north, continue to hold animals in winter feeding areas or on sacrifice pastures to allow the grass more time for growth. 

Precipitation amounts across the province this past week ranged from 0 mm to 40.3 mm. The Southwest and Central regions received the highest amounts of precipitation.  

Southwest: 

Significant rainfall occurred early in the week in the Southwest region. Sinclair and Pierson areas received 40 mm of rain, while most other areas on the south and north sides of the region received 20-30 mm. The slow rain replenished subsoil moisture and did not run off, resulting in very little ponding. During the past week, daytime temperatures ranged from 25 to 30°C, while minimum overnight temperatures ranged from 6.2 to -0.8°C, with daily averages around 11.5 to 13.5°C. The high temperatures provided farmers with a good opportunity to make progress in seeding.  

Cereal seeding is 30 to 40% complete, and some early-seeded crops are emerging well. Soybeans are 5-7% complete. Pea seeding is 60% complete. Farmers are transitioning to soybean, oat, and corn for the moment as soil temperatures rise. Some acres of grain corn are planted, with forage corn likely to follow. 

Northwest: 

Precipitation in parts of the Northwest region at the start the week was followed by warm temperatures and high winds to help dry fields. The weather allowed for field preparation, fertilizing, and seeding. Moisture is adequate, however there are fields that are holding water and need good drying conditions.  

Field pea seeding continues with progress at 65-70% complete, with Roblin/Swan River being more advanced. Earliest seeded field peas have germinated and are just beginning to emerge. Spring wheat seeding progressed nicely across the region. Progress varies with some operations completed while others are just starting. Overall progress is approximately 65% complete. Earliest seeded wheat has emerged. Canola seeding has begun across the region except for The Pas. Soybean seeding is underway in the Swan River and Dauphin area. 

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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.