Market Analysis: Wheat Price On The Run

Jan 08, 2013

The wheat price continues a downward spiral. Light to moderate volume of trading during the holidays helped accelerate the price move. The entire grain complex has suffered a major loss. The good news is the wheat market is the best performer this week in the grain commodity group despite losing 22 cents for the week.

Selling is coming from all directions. Funds are liquidating long positions in the Kansas City wheat market. In the Chicago wheat contracts, this group is adding to their net short positions. In addition, technically traders are respecting the price trend found on the charts.

Fundamental wheat traders still believe that wheat export sales will increase after the first of the year. Friday’s weekly sales reports show an improvement. This week’s total for wheat exports was 402,000 metric tons. This was in the middle of an aggressive range of estimates for a holiday trading week.

Reviewing the wheat offers from world wheat competitors, the United States wheat priced below bids from Argentina and France. Currently, these are the two major players. It is enough of a difference to offset most of the disadvantage for freight.

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