By Hunter Biram and H. Scott Stiles
The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released the monthly report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on May 12th. That report contained the first forecasts for the 2026-27 marketing year. The following are some of the highlights of that report.
Soybeans
New crop, 2026 soybean production is forecast at 4.435 billion bushels, reflecting an average yield of 53 bushels and 83.7 million harvested acres. For its initial production estimates, USDA has traditionally used the March Prospective Plantings acreage estimate and the trend-yield assumption used at the February Ag Outlook Forum. Total consumption for the 2026 crop is expected to increase 218 million bushels to 4.49 billion on record crush (2.75 billion bu.) and modest improvement in exports (1.63 billion bu.). This places year-ending stocks at 310 million bushels, down from 340 million in the current year. The marketing year average farm price for the 2026 crop is projected at $11.40 compared to $10.40 in 2025-26.
Corn
The 2026-27 corn crop is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year’s record crop on declines in both acreage and yield. Planted acres of 95.3 million acres are projected to be down 3.5 million. The yield projection of 183.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Total corn supplies are seen declining 2 percent to 18.1 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use for 2026/27 is forecast to fall 2 percent relative to a year ago on reductions in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast flat at 6.955 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is projected down 100 million bushels to 6.1 billion bushels on lower production and higher prices. U.S. corn exports for 2026/27 are forecast to decline 150 million bushels from a year ago to 3.15 billion bushels. Driven by lower production, 2026-27 ending stocks are expected to decline 185 million bushels to 1.957 billion. The 2026-27 season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents from $4.15 in the current marketing year.
Cotton
The May U.S. cotton 2026-27 projections include a smaller crop, an increase in exports, unchanged mill use and lower ending stocks compared with the 2025-26 season. New crop production is expected to be 13.3 million bales, 600,000 bales less than in 2025-26. Domestic mill use is expected to be flat year-to-year at 1.6 million. Exports are expected to increase 300,000 bales to 12.3 million bales from 12 million in 2025-26. Ending stocks are expected to decrease to 3.9 million bales from 4.4 million in 2025-26. That is the least since 3.15 million in 2023-24 and below the 10-year average of 4.25 million bales. The forecast average price of 73 cents for the 2026-27 marketing year is up considerably compared to 63 cents for the 2025-26 crop.
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