U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 14.5 million cotton acres this spring, up 2.9 percent from 2018 (based on USDA’s December 2018 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 38th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. (table detailing all states available by clicking on PDF link below)
Upland cotton intentions are 14.2 million acres, up 2.8 percent from 2018, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 264,000 acres represent a 6.3 percent increase. The survey results were announced today at the NCC’s 2019 Annual Meeting in San Antonio, Texas.
Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC’s vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis, said, “Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather, insect pressures and agronomic conditions play a significant role in determining crop size.”
She said that with abandonment assumed at approximately 10 percent for the United States, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 13.0 million acres. Using an average U.S. yield per harvested acre of 840 pounds generates a cotton crop of 22.7 million bales, with 21.9 million upland bales and 782,000 ELS bales.
The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2018 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2018 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January.
Campiche noted, “History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. The cotton-to-corn price ratio is lower than in 2018 due to higher corn prices as compared to last year. The cotton-to-soybean price ratio is higher than in 2018 due to lower soybean prices. A price ratio increase generally indicates an increase in cotton acreage.
“For the 2019 crop year, many producers have indicated a desire to reduce soybean acres due to low returns in 2018. As a result, corn is expected to provide the strongest competition for cotton acres in 2019.”
Southwest growers intend to plant 8.8 million cotton acres, a 2.2 percent increase. Increases in cotton area are expected in each of the region’s three states.
In Kansas, producers intend to plant 3.4 percent more cotton acres along with more wheat and less ‘other crops’, likely sorghum. Total Kansas acres are predicted to be 171,000 acres this spring.
In Oklahoma, a 1.0 percent increase in cotton acreage is expected- with Oklahoma producers expected to plant 788,000 acres in 2019, versus 780,000 acres in 2018.. Oklahoma growers also plan to increase acreage of wheat and ‘other crops’. The Oklahoma expected planted acreage is the third highest state predicted acreage, behind Texas and Georgia plantings intentions for 2019. (Georgia is predicted to plant 1.379 million acres- down over four percent from 2018.)
Texas acreage is expected to increase by 2.3 percent- with a total predicted cotton planting for 2019 to come in at 7.874 million acres.
Southeast respondents indicate a 2.6 percent increase in the region’s upland area to 2.8 million acres. All states except North Carolina and Virginia show a decline in acreage. In Alabama, the survey responses indicate 0.6 percent less cotton acreage as well as a reduction in corn, wheat, soybeans, and ‘other crops’. In Florida, respondents indicated less cotton ‘other crops’, likely peanuts. In Georgia, cotton acreage is expected to decline by 3.6 percent. Georgia growers expect to plant more corn and ‘other crops’, likely peanuts. In North Carolina, a 0.1 percent increase is expected. Acreage of corn and ‘other crops’ is expected to increase in North Carolina, while soybean and wheat acreage is expected to decline. In South Carolina, cotton acreage is expected to decline by 5.4 percent, while corn and soybean acreage is expected to increase. Cotton acreage is expected to increase by 3.5 percent in Virginia as acreage moves away from soybeans and ‘other crops’.Click here to see more...