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New Crop Corn, Soy Prices Slip Down Further.

Friday's Closing Grain and Livestock Futures
Jul. corn closed at $6.84 and 3/4, up 6 and 1/2 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $15.88, up 4 and 1/2 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $489.10, down $1.50
Jul. soybean oil closed at 47.23, up 1 point
Jul. wheat closed at $6.56, down 1 and 3/4 cents
Aug. live cattle closed at $121.95, unchanged
Jul. lean hogs closed at $102.35, up 72 cents
Aug. crude oil closed at $103.22, up $1.98
Jul. cotton closed at 83.68, down 71 points
Jul. Class III milk closed at $17.24, up 4 cents
Jul. gold closed at $1,212.90, down $39.20
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 15,135.84, up 147.29 points

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Market News and ReCap

Soybeans were mostly lower on commercial buying against fund and speculative selling. July was up thanks to the tight supply and solid demand, with old crop exports already above USDA’s estimate for the marketing year. Forecasts for generally good development weather did pressure new crop. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was mostly lower on commercial buying, along with fund and speculative selling. July corn was also looking at a tight near term supply and solid demand, with unknown buying 120,000 tons of new crop. That said – the dollar was up and China has announced it will raise its domestic purchase price to encourage production and lower their imports. Ethanol was mixed with nearbys up.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher dollar. China bought another 120,000 tons of U.S. soft red winter and South Korea has lifted its ban on U.S. wheat, with bids expected to resume next week. Also, Japan bought 750 tons of mixed U.S. soft red winter and U.S. white club wheat, out of a total sell-buy-sell purchase of 41,565 tons of food wheat. However, the overall global fundamental outlook for wheat remains bearish. European wheat was lower. Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry projects 2013/14 grain exports at 26 million tons.

 

A light cattle trade was evident on Friday afternoon in parts of Nebraska with regional buyers securing selective cattle at 195.00, the top of last week’s range. However, major packers continued to be rather listless with most bidding no more that 192.00 at midafternoon. More business was expected to surface late in the day. The weekly cattle kill at 559,000 head, was 93,000 less than the previous week, and 16,000 head less than 2012.

Boxed beef cutout values were weak to lower on light demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was down 1.35 at 196.34, and select was .74 lower at 187.83.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange cattle contracts closed narrowly mixed from 20 higher to 27 lower. Trade was described as sluggish with very little interest entering the market following the holiday. August settled unchanged at 121.95 and October was .02 higher at 126.25.

Feeder cattle ended the session 65 to 95 points higher in a light trade. Traders took advantage of the further erosion in the grain markets as they looked for opportunities to support both short and long term feeder cattle values. August settled .85 higher at 151.80 and September was .87 higher at 154.17.

Feeder cattle receipts at Missouri auctions totaled 16,632 head. Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold firm to 6.00 higher with several trending 6.00 to 8.00 higher. Sales were limited this holiday week with three of the nine auctions reported accounted for seventy-three percent of the total weekly receipts. Demand was good as the hopes of lower feed costs seem only a few days away. Feeder steers medium and large 1 averaging 675 pounds brought 156.37. 625 pound heifers traded at 145.21.

Lean hogs settled 90 points higher to 55 lower. The lack of overall trade activity stepping back into the complex following the holiday break left prices mixed. Although there remain questions about future cash market strength nearby contracts held strong gains in both July and August futures. July was up .72 at 102.35 and August was .90 higher at 97.75.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 1.28 lower at 99.85 on a carcass basis, the West was down 1.81 at 99.35, and the East closed 1.58 higher at 99.33.Missouri direct base carcass meat price was steady from 93.00 to 94.00. Of the terminals only Peoria reported prices steady at 65.00 to 70.00 live.

The pork carcass cutout value closed .13 lower at 105.98 FOB plant.

Iowa barrows and gilts averaged 273.4 pounds last week, .6 pound lighter than last week, though still 3.4 pounds heavier than 2012. Weights should slide harder over the next several weeks as the summer sun really heats up.

The weekly hog kill at 1,795,000 head was 223,000 less than last week, but 50,000 more than last year.


Trending Video

Predicting Weather with the Farmer’s Almanac

Video: Predicting Weather with the Farmer’s Almanac


The Farmers’ Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac have been around for centuries. The two journals use secret formulas using climatology, solar science and meteorology to make long-range weather forecasts. For years those working agriculture have turned to the almanacs for answers for insight into upcoming weather conditions.

“Over the decades, centuries even, farmers have put their trust into the almanacs products with their forecasts being one of them,” Steve Hu, professor in the School of Natural Resources department of earth and atmospheric sciences at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said during the Dec. 13 episode of Seed Speaks. “At least 50 years ago, (these) might have been the only forecasts available to people who wanted to use some information to make a plan or something.”

Modern weather forecasting with technology has only been developed over the past several decades, including the statistical approaches to the seasonal forecasting, Ray Schmitt, president and founder of Salient Predictions, added during the episode.

“With all of the satellite systems we have to monitor the weather, as well as buoys that are monitoring the state of the ocean, there is quite a bit of information now available with a long enough record for us to build comprehensive statistical models,” Schmitt explained.

However, building that trust in these “modern” weather forecasts isn’t easy, which is why many in the agricultural communities continue fall back on the almanacs for weather information even though there are more forecasts available made with more current knowledge of seasonal forecasting.

“Farming communities are still using the Farmers’ Almanac because they have the trust there. The federal government, NOAA the federal agency to issue official weather forecasts, they haven't done enough to build trust among farmers for their predictions,” Hu says. “You have to somehow encourage farmers to put more attention on NOAA’s seasonal predictions and less attention on (almanac) forecasts.”

The wealth of weather data and forecasts available now also give people options of what weather forecast they want to follow or the option to use multiple forecasts. Hu cautions though that this can lead to people favouring the forecast that aligns with their desired goal lor outcome.

“Farmers have to make lots of decisions about ‘Well, what am I going to plant next season? When should I harvest my crop?’ Lots of decisions have to be made and you'd like some help with making those decisions. So, people will look to any sort of guidance,” Schmitt added.

Using new forecast options or platforms for weather forecasts also requires that people learn how to use these new sources, Hu said.