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Non-Traditional Factors Impacting Grain Markets

There are a number of non-traditional factors at play in the grain markets which is causing a lot of volatility for the agriculture sector.

Jon Driedger, vice-president of LeftField Commodity Research, says external influences have an enormous impact like the coronavirus and its impact, and of course the ongoing trade challenges globally.

"It doesn't mean that the world will just stop trading tomorrow but certainly there's less of an appetite towards more free open trade and more of a tendency towards putting on tariffs, protecting the domestic markets and so forth," he said. "Agriculture is an exporting industry, particularly for us in western Canada, so certainly we feel that."

Canada has a number of ongoing challenges including the dispute with China over canola and with India over pulses.

He notes it’s a larger global trend with Brexit or the trade war between the U.S. and China.
 

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Iran War = “Trend is Your Friend” Short-Term BUT……

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Historically wars like the 2026 Iran war are bullish hard assets like grains, metals and energy! The funds are spooked and do not want to be short, but do they price in the news over time, similar to the Ukraine/Russian war that started on Feb. 24, 2022? A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the surge in crude oil, natural gas prices and fertilizer prices.  Grains are breaking out to new contract highs as a hedge against inflation.