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Non-Traditional Factors Impacting Grain Markets

There are a number of non-traditional factors at play in the grain markets which is causing a lot of volatility for the agriculture sector.

Jon Driedger, vice-president of LeftField Commodity Research, says external influences have an enormous impact like the coronavirus and its impact, and of course the ongoing trade challenges globally.

"It doesn't mean that the world will just stop trading tomorrow but certainly there's less of an appetite towards more free open trade and more of a tendency towards putting on tariffs, protecting the domestic markets and so forth," he said. "Agriculture is an exporting industry, particularly for us in western Canada, so certainly we feel that."

Canada has a number of ongoing challenges including the dispute with China over canola and with India over pulses.

He notes it’s a larger global trend with Brexit or the trade war between the U.S. and China.
 

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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.