November 2025 WASDE Report is Relatively Quiet Despite Surprises in Production and Exports

Nov 21, 2025

By Hunter Biram and H. Scott Stiles

The November 2025 WASDE report is the first since September to be released due to the government shutdown taking place from October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025. This month’s report was a relatively quiet one with few significant changes to the balance sheets for southern crops. Season-average farm prices for corn and soybeans were revised upward from the September report, while the prices for rice and cotton were revised downward. Despite the increases in corn and soybeans, futures markets responded with sharp declines in the nearby futures contracts. This was likely driven by production being higher than industry expectations for corn and soybean exports falling short of expectations. We provide a detailed breakdown of the changes to each crop’s respective balance sheet below.

Long-Grain Rice:

This month’s 2025/26 outlook for U.S. long-grain rice includes lower supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Long-grain production was reduced by 1 million hundredweight (cwt.) this month to 152.7 million. Yields were lowered in all Midsouth states, with Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri all seeing average yields reduced by 100 pounds per acre this month. Arkansas’ average yield was lowered by 50 pounds per acre. With no adjustments to demand, long-grain ending stocks were lowered by 1.1 million to 36 million cwt., down 3.5 percent from last year. The 2025/26 season-average farm price (SAFP) was lowered by 23 cents per bushel this month to $5.18 per bushel—the lowest since 2018. This further increases the outlook for sizeable 2025/26 PLC payments, with the current projected payment rate for long-grain at $2.44 per bushel—up 23 cents from September.

Cotton:

The November outlook for 2025/26 U.S. cotton supply and demand included higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared to September. There were no changes to domestic mill use and imports. USDA projected the 2025/26 U.S. crop to reach 14.12 million bales, up roughly 897,000 bales from the September report. The national average yield per acre increased by 58 pounds this month to 919 pounds. This would be the second-highest yield on record, behind 2022’s 953 pounds.

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