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Oil Falls a Second-Straight Week Even With Macro Price Boost

By  Julia Fanzeres

Fed rate-hike more likely; Asian oil refining margins weak WTI traded above $76, swung with equities for most of the week

Oil fell for a second consecutive week even as an earnings-driven rally on Wall Street pushed prices higher.

West Texas Intermediate rose the most in almost four weeks Friday, boosted by risk-on sentiment that benefited commodities across the board. Oil largely tracked broader market trends this week as many traders avoided staking out big positions while they await the next US central bank decision.

Crude swung sharply in April, surging to a 15-month high after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies announced an output cut. Prices subsequently gave up those gains amid technical pressures and a deteriorating outlook.

Recent economic data shows that US inflation continues to accelerate, bolstering expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates and heightening the chances of a demand-sapping recession. Meanwhile, supply from Russia has remained resilient despite Group of Seven sanctions, and China’s rebound has been slower than some anticipated.

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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.