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Ontario Providing Additional Drought Support to Farmers

BLYTH – The Ontario government is delivering immediate assistance for livestock farmers impacted by drought conditions in northwestern Ontario by committing provincial funding for AgriRecovery. This funding is in addition to the $2 million already announced for feed, water and fencing.

Financial support is being made available through the federal-provincial AgriRecovery program, a cost-share initiative designed to help farmers cover the extraordinary costs caused by severe drought and feed shortages in Ontario. Ontario is committing up to $5 million in funding for the 40 per cent provincial cost share. The federal government announced $100 million for AgriRecovery across the drought area in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario.

Ontario is calling on the federal government to include in the AgriRecovery program costs related to hay and other feeds, transportation of feed, transportation of animals to feed, measures to provide water to animals including trucking and equipment, temporary fencing and other extraordinary costs related to the drought. These costs are estimated at approximately $200 per head for cattle.

The federal government has approved Ontario’s request to increase the AgriStability interim payment to 75 per cent in the drought impacted areas.

This financial support provided by the Province, part of a new federal-provincial AgriRecovery response, builds on Ontario’s $2 million Northwestern Livestock Emergency Assistance Initiative, recently announced by Lisa Thompson, Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs on July 27, 2021.

The initiative was designed to help farmers cover the costs of such necessities as feed and hay, construction of temporary fencing for livestock to graze in alternative locations and the sourcing of water for farm animals. This initiative was an interim measure while the provincial and federal governments worked together to develop this longer term AgriRecovery response.

“Many Ontario farmers in the northwest, as well as farmers across the Prairies, have been hit hard by drought conditions and these severe dry weather conditions pose a significant threat to the livestock sector in Northwestern Ontario,” said Minister Thompson. “The agri-food sector supported Ontario during the pandemic by keeping grocery store shelves full. Now they need help, and our province is ready to step up to get them through hard times. That’s why we are moving forward with the immediate launch of our portion of the national AgriRecovery response along with our neighbours in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, so that our farmers can get the longer-term support they need – now.”

“The Beef Farmers of Ontario would like thank Minister Thompson for her swift response to initiate the AgriRecovery framework. While today’s announcement is a critical step in signaling to farmers that help is on the way, we remain concerned about the hardships the drought has created for those in affected regions, and the health of the province’s cow herd and vital infrastructure that supports Ontario’s economy,” says Rob Lipsett, BFO President.

Source : Ontario

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2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid

Video: 2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid


The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026.
Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork!
USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026.
Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020.
The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration.
After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days!
Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term.
Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling.
The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027.
After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture.
The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived.
The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-2025 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.