Prairie forecast: A mix of warm and unsettled weather

The first part of last week’s forecast played out as expected, but things began to deviate when an area of low pressure developed over Alberta last weekend.

The low was initially forecast to lift northward. Instead it tracked east to northeastward across central and northern Saskatchewan before dropping southeastward through Manitoba. The system brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the Prairies, with some areas receiving significant rainfall.

General forecast

For this forecast period, we are starting with a trough of low pressure over northwestern Ontario, another trough off the B.C. coast, and a weak upper-level ridge extending across the western and central Prairies. The ridge will bring a couple of days of dry weather and warming temperatures to Alberta and Saskatchewan before the trough off the B.C. coast moves inland on Friday.

The incoming trough will bring a couple of days of unsettled weather to Alberta beginning Friday. The best chances for precipitation is expected across central and northern regions.

The weather models are showing two areas of low pressure developing within the trough. The first is expected to form over north-central Alberta, while a second low develops over the northern states. The northern low is forecast to move northeastward into northern Saskatchewan on Saturday, while the southern low develops and redevelops as it attempts to track eastward across the northern states