Harvest Opens on a Split Pulse Market
The pulse harvest is finally rolling in western Canada, but at a slower-than-usual pace. As of August 17, only 18% of the Saskatchewan pea crop was in the bin, similar to last year but far behind the 10-year average of 55%, with lentils just 13% combined. The late start isn’t a problem yet, but it does mean the crop needs a stretch of favourable weather to avoid quality issues. Early reports add another wrinkle: pea yields are coming in lighter than the good-looking crop stands suggested. Harvest still has to move north before the yield debate can be settled. For now, average yields remain the working assumption.
What makes this year unusual is how differently the two halves of the pea market are setting up. Based on an average yield, the yellow pea crop would be roughly 30% smaller than last year, and total yellow supplies would drop by about 650,000 tonnes, tightening the balance sheet considerably. Green peas are the flipside; even with a smaller crop, the heavy old-crop carryover pushes green (and minor) pea supplies to nearly 900,000 tonnes. Even an optimistic export program would leave ending stocks at a multiyear high. Recent US acreage data tells the same story, with American growers cutting yellow pea acres 12% while expanding greens by 20%.
Lentils are following the same script. Canadian red lentil production is expected to fall about 10% this year, which would bring red supplies down to well-balanced levels, while the green lentil classes remain buried under carryover stocks even though their production shrank the most. One caution on the red side of the ledger: combined red lentil production from Canada and Australia could reach 4.0 mln tonnes or more, as a big Australian crop offsets the smaller Canadian one. That keeps South Asian demand at the centre of the price outlook.
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