Rain Welcomed Despite Slowing Saskatchewan Harvest

Sep 22, 2022

Wet weather may have slowed the Saskatchewan harvest this past week, but the moisture was still welcomed by many producers.

The latest weekly Saskatchewan crop report on Thursday said the rainfall eased concerns about field and equipment fires and raised hope that pastures may see a little regrowth after a hot, dry summer in many areas of the province. The Pelly area received the largest amounts at 44 mm, followed by the Melfort and Moosomin areas at 30 mm.

However, cropland topsoil moisture levels remained little changed on the week despite the rainfall, rated 1% surplus, 37% adequate, 40% short, and 21% very short as of Monday. That compares to 1% surplus, 37% adequate, 38% short and 24% very short the previous week.

An estimated 73% of the Saskatchewan crop was in the bin as of Monday, up from 64% the previous week and ahead of the five-year (2017-2021) average of 68%. An additional 18% of the crop was ready to be swathed or straight-cut.

Harvest is most advanced in the southwest region, where 96% of the crop was combined as of Sunday. The west-central region had 89% combined, the southeast 65%, the northwest 63%, the northeast 58%, and the east-central 52%.

The lentil and pea harvest was 97% complete as of Monday, followed by durum at 94%, barley at 78%, spring wheat at 77%, canola at 52% and flax at 35%. An additional 36% of the canola was swathed or ready to straight-cut as of Monday.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.