Reduced Hog Numbers Offer Potential for Profit

The Director of Risk Management with HAMS Marketing Services says tighter U.S. hog supplies can be expected to improve the profit potential for pork producers throughout the spring and summer. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, released last week, shows a higher than expected decline from year ago levels in the numbers of all categories of pigs on U.S. farms, about two and a half percent.

 

Tyler Fulton, the Director of Risk Management with Hams Marketing Services, says supplies will be on the tighter side for the next ten months.

 

 

In North Americas as a whole we've been on a really solid run, both from a cash market standpoint and from a futures market standpoint. Since December we've seen futures values, in particular in the spring and summer time frame, increase 20 to 25 percent of their value so it's been a really solid run up.

 

It does make sense, when you've got a high degree of certainty that we're dealing with a tighter supply, it does feed into that narrative of stronger prices. There's not a ton of variation from the U.S. to Canada. We've obviously got a stronger Canadian dollar that's impacting Canadian prices a little bit negatively but overall the outlook for profitability is very good until at least September.

 

Then there's a big question mark as to whether or not we'll see enough of an increase in the values associated with that time frame or at least enough of a decrease in commodity prices. At current futures values we're probably not looking  at anything better than a break even for the November-December time frame because the futures aren't showing a lot of value and we've got new crop corn and soybean that is still very very expensive from an historical standpoint.

Video: Evolution of Beef Cattle Farming

The Clear Conversations podcast took to the road for a special episode recorded in Nashville during CattleCon, bringing listeners straight into the heart of the cattle industry. Host Tracy Sellers welcomed rancher Steve Wooten of Beatty Canyon Ranch in Colorado for a wide-ranging discussion that blended family history and sustainability, particularly as it relates to the future of beef production.

Sustainability emerged as a central theme of the conversation, a word that Wooten acknowledges can mean very different things depending on who you ask. For him, sustainability starts with the soil. Healthy soil produces healthy grass, which supports efficient cattle capable of producing year after year with minimal external inputs. It’s an approach that equally considers vegetation, animal efficiency, and long-term profitability.

That philosophy aligned naturally with Wooten’s involvement in the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, where he served as a representative for the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association. The roundtable brings together the entire beef supply chain—from producers to retailers—along with universities, NGOs, and allied industries. Its goal is not regulation, Wooten emphasized, but collaboration, shared learning, and continuous improvement.