In a review in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Stephen Long, a professor of crop sciences and of plant biology at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, describes research efforts to "future-proof" the crops that are essential to feeding a hungry world in a changing climate. Long, who has spent decades studying the process of photosynthesis and finding ways to improve it, provides an overview of key scientific findings that offer a ray of hope.
Higher temperatures, more frequent and longer droughts, catastrophic rainfall events and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels all influence the growth, development and reproductive viability of crop plants, he writes. While some plants and regions may benefit from some aspects of climate change, without prolonged and costly intervention, many more will suffer potentially catastrophic declines.
"By 2050–60, crops will experience a significantly different environment from today," Long writes. From its pre-industrial level of about 200 parts per million, "atmospheric CO2 reached 427 ppm in 2024 and is projected to be about 600 ppm by 2050."
Extreme heat, droughts, floods and other climate-related events are already disrupting agricultural systems. Projected temperature extremes and climate instability will further reduce crop yields, increasing starvation, political unrest and mass migration, he writes.
There is some hope, however. It may be possible to alter crops in ways that allow them to persist and perhaps even increase yields despite the challenges, Long said. While the process takes time and can be costly, the work has already begun.
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