By Aaron Smith
Over the past 10 years the monthly average December corn futures contract price has peaked in June and declined through harvest (Figure 1). However, prices react differently each year. This article examines the December corn futures contract monthly average price from 2010 to 2024, for years when national average corn yield is above the predicted trendline (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2024) and below the predicted trendline (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023).
In years when the national average yield is above the trendline, the monthly average December corn futures price peaks in May and declines to September, before recovering at the end of the year. This trend can also be seen in 2024 (blue bars; Figure 1). In years when the national average yield was lower than trendline, average monthly December futures prices increased from May to October. May and June have historically been the months when December futures prices begin to move higher or lower.
This is largely due to three factors: 1) confirmation of planted acreage (USDA June Planted Acreage report); 2) early season weather and crop conditions; and 3) increased accuracy for June-July yield forecasts.
Click here to see more...