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Seed Oils And Bad Science

Standing in the Atlanta airport in April 2022, waiting for a flight back to Washington, D.C., I watched as an employee at a sandwich shop tossed upwards of 20 plastic boxes of prepared food into a large garbage bag. The store was closing for the evening, and the bento boxes of hard-boiled eggs and grapes were likely passing the stamped expiration date.

Someone somewhere had given this man his marching orders. But I and the people in line around me were still appalled at the waste. I’m not sure if we would have been more or less appalled to know that this sort of thing is a fairly common occurrence.

We are told that modern agriculture, combined with the virtues of capitalism, has vastly reduced material want. How many people in New York City woke up this morning and bought a coffee? How did the city know to make exactly the right number of cups? The full picture, visible to few beyond those who work in some part of the food supply chain, is more complex.

On the one hand, we have produced vastly more food than in previous eras of world history. Yet on the other, our food waste is in steep excess of that of our parents and grandparents, not to mention ancestors much older.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates Americans waste approximately one pound of food per person per day, amounting to 206 billion pounds of food waste, or between 30 and 40 percent of our food supply, per year, as of the most recent data in 2017. Our national food waste has increased by approximately 50 percent per capita since 1974, according to a study done by the laboratory of biological modeling at the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases in 2009.

What is canola oil, actually? The word is a sort of acronym of “Canadian Oil, Low Acid,” referring to a genetically modified version of rapeseed oil, once used to lubricate steam engines due to its ability to cling to metal when wet.

In 1956, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration banned rapeseed from the entire food chain, due to its high concentration of erucic acid, which causes fats to accumulate in the human heart, weakening the muscle and making it susceptible to disease. However, in 1978, a genetically modified version bred at the University of Manitoba boasted safe levels of the acid, and by the mid 80s the oil produced from the seed was already in widespread use. Today, the seed accounts for approximately $6 billion of the Canadian economy, according to the Canola Council of Canada.

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.