September Hogs and Pigs Report expectations

Sep 25, 2023

USDA will release the results of their September hog inventory survey this coming Thursday. I expect it to show a slightly smaller swine herd than at this time last year. I expect the market hog inventory to be down 0.4% or so. I expect the report to show farrowing intentions for the fall and winter to be down roughly 4%. Large financial losses for hog producers in late 2022 and the first half of this year is the primary reason for the declining herd.

Sow slaughter has increased in recent weeks. Over the most recent nine weeks with data, sow slaughter was up 9%. During this same period barrow and gilt slaughter was up only 2%. Increased sow slaughter in May and June would imply fewer farrowings in October and November. Of course, increased sow slaughter can be offset by increased gilt retention.

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Video: Season 6, Episode 10: Defining Resiliency and the Research Driving Swine Health Forward

Genetic research and new technologies continue to influence the future of swine health and production efficiency. In this episode, we explore how research and technology are being used to support stronger, more resilient pigs, while also improving overall production outcomes. In this episode, we are joined by Dr. Jenelle Dunkelberger, geneticist with Topigs Norsvin, to discuss both routine and emerging strategies for improving piglet, pig, and sow livability. She outlines two primary approaches to enhancing resiliency: gene editing and traditional selective breeding. Continuing the resiliency conversation, we also hear from Dr. Lucina Galina, director of technical research projects at the Pig Improvement Company. She shares insights into ongoing gene-editing work focused on PRRS, detailing the pathway to success, regulatory and practical considerations, and the questions that still remain as the technology evolves. Together, these conversations provide a closer look at how research, genetics and innovation are shaping the future of swine health and livability.