September Hogs and Pigs Report expectations

Sep 25, 2023

USDA will release the results of their September hog inventory survey this coming Thursday. I expect it to show a slightly smaller swine herd than at this time last year. I expect the market hog inventory to be down 0.4% or so. I expect the report to show farrowing intentions for the fall and winter to be down roughly 4%. Large financial losses for hog producers in late 2022 and the first half of this year is the primary reason for the declining herd.

Sow slaughter has increased in recent weeks. Over the most recent nine weeks with data, sow slaughter was up 9%. During this same period barrow and gilt slaughter was up only 2%. Increased sow slaughter in May and June would imply fewer farrowings in October and November. Of course, increased sow slaughter can be offset by increased gilt retention.

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Video: ASF Control Lessons - Dr. Mary-Louise Penrith

In this episode of The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, Dr. Mary-Louise Penrith, Extraordinary Professor at the University of Pretoria, shares what decades of work have revealed about ASF control. She explains why vaccine development remains difficult, how human activity and food waste drive disease spread, why resistant pig populations are an important research area, and how strict biosecurity with the right disinfectants can help to stop transmission. Listen now on all major platforms!

"It's really a very human-driven disease because people move pigs, decide how they're raised, how they're sold, and good biosecurity can do anything to ensure control."

Meet the guest: Dr. Mary-Louise Penrith / mary-louise-penrith-2b12bb42 is an Extraordinary Professor in the Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. A veterinarian and internationally recognized researcher, she has dedicated decades to African swine fever epidemiology, control, and pig health, supporting FAO and WOAH initiatives while advancing research and education. Listen to Dr. Mary-Louise Penrith on the Swine Health Blackbelt Podcast, available on all major platforms.