September Hogs and Pigs Report expectations

USDA will release the results of their September hog inventory survey this coming Thursday.  I expect it to show a slightly smaller swine herd than at this time last year. I expect the market hog inventory to be down 0.4% or so. I expect the report to show farrowing intentions for the fall and winter to be down roughly 4%. Large financial losses for hog producers in late 2022 and the first half of this year is the primary reason for the declining herd.

Sow slaughter has increased in recent weeks. Over the most recent nine weeks with data, sow slaughter was up 9%. During this same period barrow and gilt slaughter was up only 2%. Increased sow slaughter in May and June would imply fewer farrowings in October and November. Of course, increased sow slaughter can be offset by increased gilt retention.