Soil Organic Carbon is at Risk in a Large Part of European Agricultural Land

Apr 15, 2025

The topsoil organic carbon pool is at high risk in 43 to 83 million hectares of EU and UK agricultural land, primarily in cool and humid regions, according to a JRC-led study published in Nature Communications. This corresponds to 23% to 44% of all EU+UK agricultural land.

Between 26 and 50 million hectares are not at risk and have the potential for storing additional carbon, since they are far from saturation and can efficiently protect carbon.

The study concludes that the majority of EU agricultural soils require additional protective measures, such as cover cropping, improved crop rotations, reduced tillage, deep rooting crops, increasing organic amendments and agroforestry.

This study provides insights that can be used to implement more targeted and effective carbon management practices in agricultural soils, optimizing both the area covered and the interventions that maximize carbon storage in stable form.

Why is soil organic carbon important?

Soils are a large reservoir of carbon. The topsoil of agricultural areas in the EU alone contains more than 10 times the CO₂ of current EU annual total greenhouse gas emissions.

Soil organic carbon also supports the productivity of soils, by improving their structural condition, water holding capacity and nutrient supply, rendering them more resilient to disturbances related to land use and climate conditions.

The climate crisis has increased the loss of soil organic carbon. European agricultural soils have recently been estimated to experience a relative loss of 0.75% of total soil organic carbon between 2009 and 2018. This may indicate that further action should be put in place, to reverse this trend towards soil carbon accrual.

Combining soil carbon changes and vulnerability

Whereas changes in total soil organic carbon are informative for assessing overall trends, they are less informative in terms of future potential. This is because not all the organic carbon in soil is equal.

Some pools are more protected because carbon is bound to fine mineral particles. However, this protective capacity has a limit, known as "saturation." Once saturated, soils are more vulnerable to carbon losses.

The research team's findings, which are based on data from the largest harmonized soil database (LUCAS soil survey), challenge the traditional notion of a universal maximum saturation capacity. Instead, they suggested an "effective saturation capacity," which varies across different pedo-climatic zones, triggering the conceptualization of the new risk index.

The proposed risk index combines both soil organic carbon changes (hazard) and soil organic carbon saturation (vulnerability) to identify areas with the highest risk for further carbon losses as well as areas with potential for accrual.

What is the EU doing?

Increasing the amount of carbon in agricultural soils through more sustainable farming practices can help to reduce the impacts of climate change and improve food security.

As part of the common agricultural policy (CAP), the sustainable use of agricultural soils is already supported through the CAP Strategic Plans in all Member States by a mix of mandatory and voluntary measures for farmers.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.