The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s annual Energy Outlook has consistently predicted that electricity’s future would be led by solar-power-supply additions. But intensified local opposition, a turn-around in federal support and marketplace headwinds challenge that view.
During the past few years, it seemed inevitable that solar energy would power the country’s future. Solar technology has dominated new electric-power-plant additions during the past decade, with government estimates consistently showing renewables led by solar will provide 70 percent of generation by 2050. In fact, growth has been such that the EIA predicts solar generation will surpass wind by the summer of 2026 to become the nation’s leading source of renewables generation.
But solar’s future looks far less certain than it did a year ago. According to an S&P Global analysis, cancellations of solar, battery and wind projects in independent-system operator queues total 302 gigawatts, far outpacing 90-gigawatt additions of new thermal resources such as natural-gas-fired generation. The result means a decrease in regional reserve margins, and cumulative capacities shrinking by as much as 80 percent. Hybrid projects – solar plus battery storage – and wind have taken the hardest hit as the industry pivots to more-conventional resources such as gas-fired generation. What’s more, recent FTI Consulting work suggests that half the long-term potential renewable projects will never make it into the development queues for the next new-build cycle.
At first glance, the ideological whirlwind in the White House might appear to be the reason for the shift as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission orders reforms to the independent-system-operator queues. And the Trump administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” limits tax credits while the U.S. Treasury evaluates opportunities to pull existing federal funding. But let’s be clear. Cost is not the driver for the reassessment of solar; solar power remains the cheapest and fastest form of electricity supply to respond to current shortages. Indeed, solar generation can be installed at a rate that’s five times faster than all other new electricity sources combined. It remains the smallest-cost solution without subsidies. Wind and solar are cheaper to produce than many other types of electricity. The unsubsidized cost of wind power has decreased 66 percent since 2009, while the cost of unsubsidized solar has decreased 84 percent, according to an annual analysis by Lazard.
So, what’s really stalling solar power’s future? It’s increasing local opposition.
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