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Soybean Harvest 'Good,' but Concerns About Prices -- and Tariffs

By Dave Thompson

The executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Council says 2024 was a good year for soybeans.

"We ended up a little dry, but overall I think we increased our bushels over last year," said Stephanie Sinner. "That's always a welcome sight."

Sinner said with a big crop in the bins, the focus turns to trade and exports.

"We hosted quite a few trade teams this fall, that came in to see the harvest," Sinner said. "It's always fun to see our friends from all over the world, and they were excited about the crop they saw."

Sinner said with both soybean crushing plants working, marketing options have changed.

"That's fun to see that rolling out, and wheels turning," Sinner said.

But the executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association said even with a good crop, she's concerned about low prices for soybeans. Nancy Johnson said the input prices are high as well. She said having more bushels helps, but it doesn't make up for everything.

"We hope that input prices will continue to soften," Johnson said. "They have in some sectors."

And Johnson said they are hoping for good exports.

"We are a little concerned about the possible tariffs," Johnson said. "We've done some research, saying North Dakota in particular will be impacted by tariffs."

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.